September 28, 2020

A fine-scale assessment of present and future potential distribution range of Papaver occidentale has appeared in Diversity.

This is a second part of the comprehensive, collaborative project involving our Group and coordinated by the University of Fribourg in Switzerland (information on the earlier outcome can be found here). Following the study focused on genetic structure and phylogeography of Papaver occidentale, the new paper by Yann Fragnière et al. presents results of Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) for this patchily distributed species of (sub-)alpine calcareous screes, informed by fine-scale population data collected in the field. The analysis indicated a substantial decrease of climatically and topographically suitable areas and high extinction risk for P. occidentale under all climatic scenarios considered. Accordingly, our case study warns that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change, often inferred for high-mountain flora, may be very limited in specialised taxa of patchy environments such as screes.

Citation

Fragnière Y, Pittet L, Clément B, Bétrisey S, Gerber E, Ronikier M, Parisod C, Kozlowski G, 2020. Climate change and alpine screes: no future for glacial relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps. Diversity 12: 346. DOI